Reflections on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management

A broad range of tools are available for integrated water resource management (IWRM). In the EU research project NeWater, a hypothesis exists that IWRM cannot be realised unless current management regimes undergo a transition toward adaptive management (AM). This includes a structured process of learning, dealing with complexity, uncertainty etc. We assume that it is no longer enough for managers and tool researchers to understand the complexity and uncertainty of the outer natural system-the environment. It is just as important, to understand what goes on in the complex and uncertain participatory processes between the water managers, different stakeholders, authorities and researchers when a specific tool and process is used for environmental management. The paper revisits a case study carried out 2001-2004 where the tool Bayesian networks (BNs) was tested for groundwater management with full stakeholder involvement. With the participation of two researchers (the authors) and two water managers previously involved in the case study, a qualitative interview was prepared and carried out in June 2006. The aim of this ex-post evaluation was to capture and explore the water managers' experience with Bayesian belief networks when used for integrated and adaptive water management and provide a narrative approach for tool enhancement.     

火灾高温下CFRP加固钢筋混凝土梁温度场分析

综合国外CFRP加固混凝土结构抗火试验相关研究,总结了CFRP的高温热工性能参数。用ANSYS软件对火灾高温下不同情况(无防火保护层和有防火保护层)和不同工况(防火涂料涂抹形式)下CFRP加固后的钢筋混凝土梁进行了温度场数值模拟研究。结果表明,防火涂料厚40 mm时,梁耐火极限可达2.5小时以上,且底面和两侧面全面涂抹防火涂料的防火效果最好。本文研究有助于进一步深入认识CFRP加固钢筋混凝土结构在高温下的力学性能和耐火极限,且对CFRP加固后的结构防火设计具有一定的指导意义。     

Software as a bridge between theory and practice in life cycle assessment

Three mutually dependent elements are required for the application of life cycle assessment: methodology, data and software. Obviously, the design of software is determined by the methodology and the type of data available. Conversely, the development of software dictates the way in which data should be collected and recorded, and improves the theoretical framework, as it forces one to state the principles clearly and unambiguously. The influence of the development of software on both data and methodology is addressed and illustrated by examples, with reference to two key terms: transparency and explicitness. Three types of influence are distinguished: the design of a protocol, the formulation in terms of recipes, and the presentation of data.     

圆锥形薄壁件成形过程及性能的数值模拟

采用了ANSYS有限元分析软件对圆锥形薄壁件成形过程进行了数值模拟,分析了冲压过程中两类失效形式产生的原因,并提出了相应的解决办法。     

系统动力学复杂性及其在海洋生态学中的研究进展

海洋生态系统具有开放性、耗散性和非线性等特点,可以借助于系统动力学方法对其研究.系统动力学研究一个不可回避的问题就是系统动力学复杂性.本文在简单介绍几种常见的系统动力学模型及其复杂性问题的基础上,系统阐述了当前系统动力学复杂性在海洋生物多样性的维持、海洋生态系统的物质循环、海洋生物群落结构稳定性、有害藻类的暴发、海洋污染物的扩散、海洋生态毒理动力学、海洋生物资源的开发与管理等方面的应用、研究进展及相关问题.在总结以上研究进展的基础上,本文对系统动力学复杂性在海洋生态学研究中的应用进行了展望.     

靶场环境电磁干扰控制

阐述了在靶场中应用的屏蔽技术、接地技术、滤波技术、静电放电保护措施、机动车辆干扰控制等硬件抗干扰技术以及常用的软件抗干扰技术,这些措施的综合应用可以有效提高靶场设备的电磁兼容性.     

渤海溢油应急预报系统

本文建立的渤海溢油应急预报系统，采用目前比较成熟的环境动力和溢油行为模式，提供海面油膜的位置和覆盖面积，水体中油的浓度分布及溢油的比重，粘度，挥发量，残留量，平均厚度等物化参数的实时预报信息。适用于渤海海域的溢油应急报和环境风险评价。系统界面友好，操作简单，反应快捷，后处理功能完工具有可扩充性。     

柴油车加载减速工况烟度排放测试软件开发

依据《柴油车加载减速烟度排放标准》和《柴油车加载减速工况烟度检测计算机控制试验规程》的要求,开发了柴油车加载减速工况烟度排放测试软件。详细介绍了该测试软件的功能和特点。     

Windows系统端口安全和防护

针对Windows系统端口的安全 ,介绍端口的基本特征和用途 ;分析木马和病毒等诸多因素对端口的威胁 ;论述端口关闭的方法和原则 ,而该原则是只开放需要的端口 ,以获得最大程度减小被攻击的可能性 ;最后重点阐述端口管理在安全指南软件中的实现 ,希望达到的目的是使不同层次的计算机用户、特别是缺少基本计算机操作和端口安全知识的用户 ,在该软件的指导下都能正确、顺利地管理端口 ,保障微机和网络安全。